Slavia Praha 3-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Fortuna Arena to face Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Slavia Praha (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha at Fortuna Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Slavia Praha, who have won 8 of the last 8 meetings against Bohemians 1905 — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 2–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slavia Praha and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 39% versus Bohemians 1905 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 51% | Bohemians 1905 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.29 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.242 / defence 0.695 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.863 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.266. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.695 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Slavia Praha games / 45 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 47% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 1905 20%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Bohemians 1905 5.00. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 50% | Bohemians 1905 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 47% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 1905 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Slavia Praha 1.29 / Bohemians 1905 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.242 / def 0.695 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.863 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Bohemians 1905 xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Slavia Praha 3 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 47% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Record (8 meetings): Slavia Praha 8W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.86x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
47%
2.13
33%
3.00
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.05
0.76
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.76 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.49 PPG on a 38W 8D 3L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 15W 14D 20L from 49 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.83 PPG from 24 outings (22W 2D 0L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 8W 6D 10L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.02 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 38W 8D 3L in their last 49 games (2.49 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 14D 20L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.83 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
0
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 9, Bohemians 1905 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 38%, Bohemians 1905 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Slavia Praha) and 38% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 38% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Slavia Praha's recent games and 38% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slavia Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Bohemians 1905 3-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.29 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.76 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.24 / defence 0.69 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 0.83, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 47% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 1905 20%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 51%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.