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Stalemate at Sigma Olomouc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 9, as Sigma Olomouc and Teplice drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.71 xG and Teplice 0.74 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.93 / defence 0.73 against Teplice attack 0.83 / defence 1.31, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 60% | Draw 24% | Teplice 16%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 58%, Teplice 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Teplice's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Teplice 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights