Sigma Olomouc 0-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Andruv stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 1D 5L at Andruv stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Teplice have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.00 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 4 for Teplice and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 56% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 58% | Teplice 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.71 xG and Teplice 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.931 / defence 0.735 | Teplice attack 0.830 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.220. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Sigma Olomouc games / 38 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Draw 24% | Teplice 16%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Teplice 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Teplice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Draw 24% | Teplice 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.71 / Teplice 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.931 / def 0.735 | Teplice attack 0.830 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Teplice xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 60% chance of winning, Teplice a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Record (8 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 2 | Teplice 4W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.93x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.83x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.11
16%
6.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.45
0.74
Teplice xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
6.40
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
29%
3.51
3%
35.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.74 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 16W 10D 17L from 43 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 21L across 43 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.12 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 10W 3D 8L from 21 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 3W 7D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 9D 21L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Teplice away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.57 PPG; Teplice away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 67%, Teplice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Sigma Olomouc and 43% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 5% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 57% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 43% of Teplice's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Teplice tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Teplice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sigma Olomouc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 9, as Sigma Olomouc and Teplice drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.71 xG and Teplice 0.74 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.93 / defence 0.73 against Teplice attack 0.83 / defence 1.31, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 60% | Draw 24% | Teplice 16%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 58%, Teplice 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Teplice 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.