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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Teplice make the trip to Andruv stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 1D 5L at Andruv stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Teplice have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.00 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 4 for Teplice and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Teplice winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 56% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 58% | Teplice 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.71 xG and Teplice 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.931 / defence 0.735 | Teplice attack 0.830 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.220. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Sigma Olomouc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Sigma Olomouc games / 38 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Draw 24% | Teplice 16%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Teplice 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Teplice 60%.

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