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Shock result as Sparta Praha defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 0-1 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.02 xG and Sparta Praha 0.76 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.91 / defence 0.56 against Sparta Praha attack 1.07 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 36% | Sparta Praha 25%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 54%, Sparta Praha 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights