🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Sparta Praha make the trip to Andruv stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Andruv stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Sparta Praha (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sparta Praha away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.50 for Sparta Praha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 9 meetings, Sparta Praha have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Sigma Olomouc's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Sparta Praha winning.

It is worth noting that Sparta Praha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 54% and Sparta Praha 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 54% | Sparta Praha 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.02 xG and Sparta Praha 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.912 / defence 0.557 | Sparta Praha attack 1.069 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.273. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.557 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Sigma Olomouc games / 47 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 36% | Sparta Praha 25%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Sparta Praha 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 20% | Sparta Praha 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights