Sigma Olomouc 0-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to Andruv stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Andruv stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sparta Praha (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.50 for Sparta Praha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Sparta Praha have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Sigma Olomouc's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Sparta Praha winning.
It is worth noting that Sparta Praha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 54% and Sparta Praha 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 54% | Sparta Praha 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.02 xG and Sparta Praha 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.912 / defence 0.557 | Sparta Praha attack 1.069 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.273. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.557 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Sigma Olomouc games / 47 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 36% | Sparta Praha 25%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Sparta Praha 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 20% | Sparta Praha 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 36% | Sparta Praha 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.02 / Sparta Praha 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.912 / def 0.557 | Sparta Praha attack 1.069 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Sparta Praha xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 40% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
Record (9 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 2 | Sparta Praha 6W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (0.91) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.07x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.56x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
40%
2.53
36%
2.82
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
1.78
0.76
Sparta Praha xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.76 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 15D 18L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 1.87 PPG from 52 outings (29W 10D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 12W 5D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.64 points per game from 25 outings (12W 5D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.79 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 71%.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 19W 15D 18L in their last 52 games (1.38 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 29W 10D 13L in their last 52 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.64 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 1-4 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Sigma Olomouc 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 56%, Sparta Praha 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sigma Olomouc and 56% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 64% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 56% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Praha defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 0-1 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.02 xG and Sparta Praha 0.76 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.91 / defence 0.56 against Sparta Praha attack 1.07 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 36% | Sparta Praha 25%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 54%, Sparta Praha 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.