Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.78 xG and Slavia Praha 2.12 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.97 / defence 1.30 against Slavia Praha attack 1.36 / defence 0.55, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 11% | Draw 22% | Slavia Praha 67%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 61%, Slavia Praha 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights