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Dominant Sigma Olomouc run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Pardubice 4-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.75 xG and Pardubice 1.03 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.04 / defence 1.18 against Pardubice attack 0.76 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 54% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 22%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 62%, Pardubice 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Pardubice's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.25 PPG, Pardubice 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights