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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sigma Olomouc and Karviná share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 26, as Sigma Olomouc and Karviná drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.37 xG and Karviná 0.86 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 0.72 against Karviná attack 1.07 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 31% | Karviná 22%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 54%, Karviná 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Karviná's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Karviná 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights