🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Hradec Králové 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.38 xG and Hradec Králové 0.92 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.86 / defence 0.68 against Hradec Králové attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 47% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 24%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 55%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.30 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights