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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.77 xG and FK Jablonec 0.88 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 0.68 against FK Jablonec attack 1.06 / defence 0.72, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 27% | Draw 40% | FK Jablonec 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 58%, FK Jablonec 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights