Sigma Olomouc 2-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Sigma Olomouc take on FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec meet at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 October 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 2D 4L at Andruv stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, FK Jablonec have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FK Jablonec are 0.90 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.40 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 2W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 0–4 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 56% versus FK Jablonec 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 58% | FK Jablonec 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 0.77 xG and FK Jablonec 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.852 / defence 0.675 | FK Jablonec attack 1.059 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.228. FK Jablonec's defence strength of 0.720 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.675 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Sigma Olomouc games / 40 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 27% | Draw 40% | FK Jablonec 33%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 3.70 | Draw 2.50 | FK Jablonec 3.03. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Sigma Olomouc's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.65 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 40% | FK Jablonec 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 27% | Draw 40% | FK Jablonec 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 34% | xG Sigma Olomouc 0.77 / FK Jablonec 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.852 / def 0.675 | FK Jablonec attack 1.059 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FK Jablonec xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 27% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 33% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
Record (7 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 4 | FK Jablonec 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.06x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.70
40%
2.52
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
1.65
0.88
FK Jablonec xG
3.70
27%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.3 | 16.9 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.0%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.88 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 16W 12D 17L from 45 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 26W 9D 10L across 45 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FK Jablonec by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sigma Olomouc heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 10W 4D 8L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 12W 4D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.69 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 26W 9D 10L in their last 45 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.55 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 64%, FK Jablonec 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Sigma Olomouc and 46% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 46% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 46% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.77 xG and FK Jablonec 0.88 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 0.68 against FK Jablonec attack 1.06 / defence 0.72, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 27% | Draw 40% | FK Jablonec 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 58%, FK Jablonec 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.