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Stalemate at Sigma Olomouc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha finished level at 0-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.57 xG and Dukla Praha 1.05 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Dukla Praha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.07 / defence 0.99 against Dukla Praha attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 25%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 67%, Dukla Praha 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights