Sigma Olomouc 0-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Sigma Olomouc welcome Dukla Praha to Andruv stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 0D 6L at Andruv stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Dukla Praha have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dukla Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Dukla Praha have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sigma Olomouc at 1.00 PPG versus Dukla Praha's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Dukla Praha 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 94% of games (home games).
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 64% versus Dukla Praha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 67% | Dukla Praha 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.57 xG and Dukla Praha 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.069 / defence 0.993 | Dukla Praha attack 0.768 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.372. Data: 31 Sigma Olomouc games / 31 Dukla Praha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 25%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Dukla Praha 4.00. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Dukla Praha 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.57 / Dukla Praha 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.069 / def 0.993 | Dukla Praha attack 0.768 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dukla Praha xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 50% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha?
Record (2 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Dukla Praha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Dukla Praha's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
50%
2.02
25%
3.97
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.62
1.05
Dukla Praha xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
5%
19.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.05 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Sigma Olomouc have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 13W 9D 14L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dukla Praha's form line: 7W 12D 17L from 36 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Dukla Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sigma Olomouc are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (7W 2D 8L).
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 3W 6D 8L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.92 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Dukla Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 7W 12D 17L in their last 36 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Dukla Praha away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.35 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Dukla Praha 2-2 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 76%, Dukla Praha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 94% for Sigma Olomouc and 53% for Dukla Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Dukla Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 53% of Dukla Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 94% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 53% of Dukla Praha's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sigma Olomouc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc and Dukla Praha finished level at 0-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.57 xG and Dukla Praha 1.05 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Dukla Praha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.07 / defence 0.99 against Dukla Praha attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 25% | Dukla Praha 25%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 67%, Dukla Praha 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.