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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andruv stadion, Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.34 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.11 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 41% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 58%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights