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Stalemate at Plzen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 23, as Plzen and Sparta Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.17 xG and Sparta Praha 1.65 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Plzen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.30 / defence 1.08 against Sparta Praha attack 1.36 / defence 0.69, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 26% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 48%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Sparta Praha 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plzen 2.02 PPG, Sparta Praha 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights