Plzen 2-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Slovan Liberec at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 8W 1D 0L at Doosan Aréna — 2.78 PPG. They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's away record: 3W 2D 3L from 8 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.38 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 2.30 PPG versus Slovan Liberec's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 47% versus Slovan Liberec 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 59% | Slovan Liberec 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.06 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.336 / defence 0.845 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.884 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.316. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Plzen games / 17 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 62% | Draw 21% | Slovan Liberec 17%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Slovan Liberec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 56% | Slovan Liberec 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 62% | Draw 21% | Slovan Liberec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Plzen 2.06 / Slovan Liberec 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.336 / def 0.845 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.884 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Plzen (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Slovan Liberec xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Plzen vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Plzen 2 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Plzen vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 62% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Plzen and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Slovan Liberec in?
Plzen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.34) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.86
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.04
0.98
Slovan Liberec xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
2%
45.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Plzen and 0.98 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.41 PPG on a 13W 2D 2L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec's form line: 7W 2D 8L from 17 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovan Liberec.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.75 PPG from 8 outings (7W 1D 0L).
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.00 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 13W 2D 2L in their last 17 games (2.41 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 7W 2D 8L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Plzen's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.75 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Plzen
2
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 5, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Plzen 1-3 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 50%, Slovan Liberec 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Plzen and 62% for Slovan Liberec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Plzen's games and 75% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Plzen's matches and 62% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Plzen and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Slovan Liberec 2-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.06 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.98 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.34 / defence 0.84 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 62% | Draw 21% | Slovan Liberec 17%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 59%, Slovan Liberec 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.