Karviná 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Karviná welcome Plzen to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Karviná stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 0W 4D 5L from 9 Czech Liga appearances (0.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 5W 1D 2L from 8 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 2.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Karviná, 1 for Plzen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 61% versus Plzen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 56% | Plzen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.02 xG and Plzen 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.812 / defence 1.343 | Plzen attack 0.856 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.307. Data: 18 Karviná games / 18 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 26% | Draw 26% | Plzen 48%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Plzen 2.08. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Karviná 89% | Plzen 38% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 26% | Draw 26% | Plzen 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Karviná 1.02 / Plzen 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.812 / def 1.343 | Plzen attack 0.856 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Plzen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Plzen xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Plzen kick off?
Karviná vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Plzen?
Karviná 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Karviná vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Plzen part of?
Karviná vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 26% chance of winning, Plzen a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Karviná and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Plzen?
Record (1 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 1W.
What form are Karviná and Plzen in?
Karviná (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Plzen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.81x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
26%
3.88
26%
3.86
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.53
1.50
Plzen xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
6%
17.44
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Karviná and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Karviná and 1.50 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná's recent record stands at 0W 5D 13L from 18 games, a 0.28 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 14W 2D 2L across 18 games — 2.44 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 2.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 0W 3D 5L from 8 games — 0.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 5W 1D 2L across 8 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plzen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.94 scored and 0.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plzen in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Plzen in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 0W 5D 13L in their last 18 games (0.28 PPG), while Plzen have gone 14W 2D 2L in their last 18 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 0.38 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Karviná or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Plzen in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Karviná
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Plzen?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 1, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Karviná 0-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 88%, Plzen 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Karviná) and 38% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Karviná's games and 38% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Karviná's matches and 38% of Plzen's.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Karviná 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Karviná 0-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.02 xG and Plzen 1.50 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Karviná fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.81 / defence 1.34 against Plzen attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 26% | Draw 26% | Plzen 48%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 56%, Plzen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 0.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.