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Dominant Plzen run riot with a 5-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat FK Jablonec 5-0 at Doosan Arena, Championship Group - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.50 xG and FK Jablonec 1.13 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plzen 45% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 28%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 52%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plzen's trading profile (68 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (68 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plzen 1.97 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights