Plzen 4-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Championship Round - 5 as Plzen welcome FK Jablonec to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plzen 1.90 PPG, FK Jablonec 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Plzen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FK Jablonec in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Plzen have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while FK Jablonec have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 3–2 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 56% versus FK Jablonec 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 58% | FK Jablonec 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.72 xG and FK Jablonec 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.370 / defence 1.062 | FK Jablonec attack 0.981 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Plzen games / 60 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 48% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 28%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | FK Jablonec 3.57. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | FK Jablonec 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 48% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Plzen 1.72 / FK Jablonec 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.370 / def 1.062 | FK Jablonec attack 0.981 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Plzen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FK Jablonec xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Plzen 4 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Plzen vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs FK Jablonec part of?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 48% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Plzen and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Record (6 meetings): Plzen 5W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plzen's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
48%
2.07
24%
4.18
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.98
1.25
FK Jablonec xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
5%
20.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Plzen and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Plzen and 1.25 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen's recent record stands at 43W 12D 14L from 69 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 28W 20D 21L across 69 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 24W 4D 6L from 34 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 10W 10D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.51 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
FK Jablonec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 43W 12D 14L in their last 69 games (2.04 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 28W 20D 21L in their last 69 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or FK Jablonec away?
Plzen's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.24 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Plzen or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 53%, FK Jablonec 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Plzen) and 44% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Plzen's recent matches and 47% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Plzen's recent games and 44% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FK Jablonec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat FK Jablonec 4-1 at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.72 xG and FK Jablonec 1.25 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.37 / defence 1.06 against FK Jablonec attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 48% | Draw 24% | FK Jablonec 28%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 58%, FK Jablonec 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.