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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Zlin 3-1 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.62 xG and Zlin 0.96 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Zlin attack 0.78 / defence 1.33, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 51% | Draw 28% | Zlin 21%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 48%, Zlin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Zlin's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.31 PPG, Zlin 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights