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Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Pardubice 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Praha beat Pardubice 1-2 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.87 xG and Sparta Praha 1.24 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.76 / defence 0.94 against Sparta Praha attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 25% | Draw 31% | Sparta Praha 44%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 41%, Sparta Praha 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Praha's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights