Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec – Match Report

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Pardubice and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Pardubice and Slovan Liberec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.02 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.22 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 29% | Draw 32% | Slovan Liberec 39%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Slovan Liberec 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.06 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights