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Pardubice and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 20, as Pardubice and Slavia Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.03 xG and Slavia Praha 1.75 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Slavia Praha attack 1.24 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 22% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 54%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 46%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights