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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Pardubice 0-2 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.83 xG and Slavia Praha 1.36 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Slavia Praha attack 1.19 / defence 0.66, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 23% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 49%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Slavia Praha 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights