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Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.24 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.41 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.09 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 32% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 39%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Sigma Olomouc 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights