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Stalemate at Pardubice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice and Plzen finished level at 0-0 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.75 xG and Plzen 1.62 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Plzen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against Plzen attack 1.18 / defence 0.71, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 16% | Draw 27% | Plzen 57%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Plzen 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Plzen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights