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Poisson model favours Plzen (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Plzen.

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Match Analysis

Pardubice host Plzen at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at CFIG Arena, Pardubice have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Pardubice are significantly better at CFIG Arena than their overall form suggests.

Plzen — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Plzen's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against Pardubice's 0 victories.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Pardubice in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Plzen in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 42% versus Plzen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Plzen 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.75 xG and Plzen 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.726 / defence 1.177 | Plzen attack 1.178 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.168. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plzen's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Pardubice games / 54 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 16% | Draw 27% | Plzen 57%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 6.25 | Draw 3.70 | Plzen 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Plzen 40% BTTS from recent games.

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