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Karviná cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Pardubice 1-3 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.50 xG and Karviná 1.28 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Karviná attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 41% | Draw 27% | Karviná 31%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Karviná 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Karviná's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.10 PPG, Karviná 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights