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FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Pardubice 0-2 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.11 xG and FK Jablonec 1.41 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against FK Jablonec attack 1.09 / defence 0.95, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 28% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 43%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 46%, FK Jablonec 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights