Pardubice 1-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pardubice at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CFIG Arena plays host to Pardubice versus České Budějovice in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pardubice have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Pardubice's home record at CFIG Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Pardubice are significantly better at CFIG Arena than their overall form suggests.
České Budějovice (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Pardubice against 0.20 for České Budějovice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Pardubice have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, České Budějovice in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Pardubice 3W, České Budějovice 3W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 40% versus České Budějovice 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 40% | České Budějovice 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.53 xG and České Budějovice 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.777 / defence 0.998 | České Budějovice attack 0.643 / defence 1.452. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.53 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.452 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Pardubice games / 60 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 55% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 19%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | České Budějovice 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Pardubice (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 30% | České Budějovice 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 55% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 42% | xG Pardubice 1.53 / České Budějovice 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.777 / def 0.998 | České Budějovice attack 0.643 / def 1.452 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.77
České Budějovice xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs České Budějovice kick off?
Pardubice vs České Budějovice kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Pardubice 1 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Pardubice vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs České Budějovice part of?
Pardubice vs České Budějovice is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 55% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pardubice and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
Record (9 meetings): Pardubice 3W | Draws 3 | České Budějovice 3W.
What form are Pardubice and České Budějovice in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.64x) against Pardubice's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.83
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.30
0.77
České Budějovice xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
4%
24.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pardubice and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.77 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 67 games, going 15W 14D 38L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 0.58 PPG from 67 outings (8W 15D 44L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Pardubice against 0.58 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pardubice's home form reads 8W 9D 16L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.24 points per game from 33 outings (0W 8D 25L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.85 scored and 2.16 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
České Budějovice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 15W 14D 38L in their last 67 games (0.88 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 15D 44L in their last 67 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or České Budějovice away?
Pardubice's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.00 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Pardubice 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 42%, České Budějovice 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pardubice) and 61% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 42% of games; České Budějovice in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pardubice's recent matches and 52% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pardubice's recent games and 61% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pardubice edge out České Budějovice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat České Budějovice 1-0 at CFIG Arena, Relegation Round - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.53 xG and České Budějovice 0.77 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against České Budějovice attack 0.64 / defence 1.45, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 55% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 19%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 40%, České Budějovice 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
České Budějovice's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.88 PPG, České Budějovice 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.