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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pardubice and Dukla Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice and Dukla Praha finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.16 xG and Dukla Praha 0.98 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Dukla Praha attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 36% | Draw 38% | Dukla Praha 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 46%, Dukla Praha 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.78 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights