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Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.80 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.28 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.64 / defence 1.05 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pardubice 22% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 46%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Bohemians 1905 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pardubice's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.90 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights