Příbram 0-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Příbram at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Příbram vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Na Litavce to face Příbram in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Thursday 1 June 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pardubice's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Příbram 1.60 xG and Pardubice 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Příbram attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Pardubice attack 0.825 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Data: 0 Příbram games / 60 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Příbram 45% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 27%. Fair-value odds: Příbram 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Pardubice 3.70. Příbram hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Příbram are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Příbram if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Příbram vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Na Litavce • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jun 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Příbram 45% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Příbram 1.60 / Pardubice 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Příbram attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Pardubice attack 0.825 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Příbram (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Příbram xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Pardubice xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Příbram vs Pardubice kick off?
Příbram vs Pardubice kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 1 June 2023 at Stadion Na Litavce.
What was the final score in Příbram vs Pardubice?
Příbram 0 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Příbram vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Na Litavce.
What competition is Příbram vs Pardubice part of?
Příbram vs Pardubice is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Příbram vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Příbram a 45% chance of winning, Pardubice a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Příbram the favourite.
Will both teams score in Příbram vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Příbram and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Příbram vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Příbram and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Příbram and Pardubice in?
Pardubice (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Pardubice away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Příbram's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Pardubice's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.82x) against Příbram's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Příbram Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.63
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Příbram xG
Total xG
2.78
1.19
Pardubice xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
5%
18.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Příbram vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Příbram and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Příbram and 1.19 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Příbram vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Příbram
Pre-Season
Pardubice
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Příbram
1
Draws
1
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Příbram and Pardubice?
From 2 meetings on record, Příbram have won 0, Pardubice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Příbram and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when Pardubice 0-0 Příbram.
Who has won more matches between Příbram and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Příbram home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Příbram.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Příbram 0-2 at Stadion Na Litavce, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Příbram 1.60 xG and Pardubice 1.19 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Příbram fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Pardubice outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Příbram attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Pardubice attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Příbram 45% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 27%, with Příbram to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.