🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Mlada Boleslav and Zlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Lokotrans Arena, Relegation Group - 2, as Mlada Boleslav and Zlin drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 2.07 xG and Zlin 0.94 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Zlin attack 0.79 / defence 1.42, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 63% | Draw 22% | Zlin 15%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 61%, Zlin 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Zlin's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.16 PPG, Zlin 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights