🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Teplice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mlada Boleslav.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Mlada Boleslav 0-2 at Lokotrans Arena, Relegation Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.50 xG and Teplice 1.17 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Teplice outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Teplice attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 44% | Draw 28% | Teplice 29%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 61%, Teplice 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Teplice's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.17 PPG, Teplice 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights