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Stalemate at Mlada Boleslav's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav and Teplice finished level at 0-0 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.41 xG and Teplice 1.48 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Teplice landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.09 / defence 1.40 against Teplice attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 35% | Draw 27% | Teplice 38%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, Teplice 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Teplice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.05 PPG, Teplice 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights