Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.12x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.12x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.28
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.66
1.19
Slovan Liberec xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
6%
15.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.19 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.