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Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FK Jablonec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mlada Boleslav beat FK Jablonec 3-0 at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.18 xG and FK Jablonec 1.72 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.03 / defence 1.31 against FK Jablonec attack 1.19 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 25% | Draw 26% | FK Jablonec 49%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Mlada Boleslav win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, FK Jablonec 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Mlada Boleslav winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights