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Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 29, as Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.62 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Dukla Praha attack 0.65 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 56% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 16%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 63%, Dukla Praha 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (62 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (62 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.15 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights