Mlada Boleslav 0-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Dukla Praha at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 3W 4D 3L at Lokotrans Aréna — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dukla Praha — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mlada Boleslav at 0.90 PPG versus Dukla Praha's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Mlada Boleslav have won 1, Dukla Praha 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 56% versus Dukla Praha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 63% | Dukla Praha 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.38 xG and Dukla Praha 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.978 / defence 1.108 | Dukla Praha attack 0.663 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.151. Data: 57 Mlada Boleslav games / 27 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 48% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 22%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Dukla Praha 4.55. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mlada Boleslav 60% | Dukla Praha 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 48% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.38 / Dukla Praha 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.978 / def 1.108 | Dukla Praha attack 0.663 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Dukla Praha xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 48% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha?
Record (1 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 1W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mlada Boleslav's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Dukla Praha's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.30
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.22
0.85
Dukla Praha xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.85 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 9W 7D 11L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha's form line: 4W 9D 14L from 27 games, 0.78 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-D. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mlada Boleslav are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 5D 7L from 13 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.70 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 4W 9D 14L in their last 27 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Dukla Praha away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.46 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
1
Draws
3
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha?
From 6 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 46%, Dukla Praha 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Mlada Boleslav) and 38% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 31%; Dukla Praha in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 38% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 38% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dukla Praha defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha beat Mlada Boleslav 0-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.38 xG and Dukla Praha 0.85 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against Dukla Praha attack 0.66 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 48% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 22%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Dukla Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 63%, Dukla Praha 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Dukla Praha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.