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Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Lokotrans Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.30 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.46 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.02 / defence 1.39 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 33% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 40%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.09 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights