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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.27 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.20 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.98 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 36% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 32%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, Bohemians 1905 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.35 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights