Mlada Boleslav 1-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Lokotrans Aréna to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Aréna: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Mlada Boleslav. A 0.50 PPG lead over Bohemians 1905 (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mlada Boleslav lead 3W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 57% versus Bohemians 1905 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 62% | Bohemians 1905 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.27 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.993 / defence 1.079 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.981 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.130. Data: 55 Mlada Boleslav games / 55 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 36% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 32%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Bohemians 1905 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Bohemians 1905 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 36% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.27 / Bohemians 1905 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.993 / def 1.079 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.981 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bohemians 1905 xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 36% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Record (7 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 3W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (0.99) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.98x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
36%
2.79
32%
3.15
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.46
1.20
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.20 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 15D 23L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.15 PPG from 60 outings (16W 21D 23L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.15 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 13W 6D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.17 points per game from 29 outings (8W 10D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.03 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 22W 15D 23L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 21D 23L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.55 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mlada Boleslav
5
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 59%, Bohemians 1905 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Mlada Boleslav) and 48% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 55% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 48% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Mlada Boleslav 1-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.27 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.20 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.98 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 36% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 32%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 62%, Bohemians 1905 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.35 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.