Karviná 1-0 Vyškov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vyškov at 39%, yet in-form Karviná provide a compelling counter-argument — this Karviná vs Vyškov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vyškov travel to Městský Stadión to take on Karviná in Czech Liga (Relegation Round). The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Karviná stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 3 games, Vyškov have recorded 0W 1D 2L — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%).
On current form, Karviná have the edge — a 1.27 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Karviná have won 1, Vyškov 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 May 2024, ended Karviná 1–0 Vyškov — a Karviná win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Karviná in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vyškov in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 0% of Karviná's games and 0% of Vyškov's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Karviná 33% | Vyškov 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.17 xG and Vyškov 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.664 / defence 1.217 | Vyškov attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.290. Karviná's attack rating of 0.664 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Karviná's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vyškov's projected output up. Data: built from Karviná's last 30 games and Vyškov's last 0.
Result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 29% | Vyškov 39%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.19 | Draw 3.40 | Vyškov 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vyškov are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Karviná (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vyškov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Karviná's last 10 home games and Vyškov's last 3 games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Karviná 40% (last 10 home games) | Vyškov 0% (last 3 games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Vyškov | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 2 June 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 31% | Draw 29% | Vyškov 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Karviná 1.17 / Vyškov 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.664 / def 1.217 | Vyškov attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Vyškov (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Vyškov xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karviná vs Vyškov FAQs
What time does Karviná vs Vyškov kick off?
Karviná vs Vyškov kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Vyškov?
Karviná 1 - 0 Vyškov.
Where is Karviná vs Vyškov being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Vyškov part of?
Karviná vs Vyškov is a Czech Liga fixture (Relegation Round) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Vyškov?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 31% chance of winning, Vyškov a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vyškov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Vyškov?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Karviná and Vyškov will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Karviná vs Vyškov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.66x the league average against Vyškov's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vyškov's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Karviná's last 30 games and Vyškov's last 0 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vyškov Win
31%
3.19
29%
3.40
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.50
1.33
Vyškov xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
8%
12.13
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karviná vs Vyškov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Vyškov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Karviná and Vyškov expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Karviná and 1.33 for Vyškov, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Vyškov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Karviná have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — L-W-W across the most recent five.
Vyškov's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-D-L.
Put side by side, Karviná are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vyškov.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Vyškov are on 0.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Vyškov in 0%.
Defensively: Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Vyškov
Early Season
Karviná (Home) vs Vyškov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karviná
Early Season
Vyškov
Early Season
❓ Karviná vs Vyškov Form FAQs
What form are Karviná and Vyškov in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Vyškov have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Karviná or Vyškov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Vyškov in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2024. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 2 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Karviná
0
Draws
0
Vyškov
Recent Meetings
❓ Karviná vs Vyškov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Vyškov?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Karviná have won 2, Vyškov have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Vyškov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 June 2024: Karviná 1-0 Vyškov.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Vyškov?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Vyškov see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Karviná 0% BTTS, Vyškov 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Karviná and 0% for Vyškov.
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Vyškov in 33%; Karviná have failed to score in 33% of games; Vyškov in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Vyškov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karviná vs Vyškov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karviná and Vyškov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Karviná's recent matches and 0% of Vyškov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karviná and Vyškov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Karviná's recent games and 0% of Vyškov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Vyškov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Karviná's recent matches and 33% of Vyškov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Vyškov 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Vyškov 1-0 at Městský Stadión, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.17 xG and Vyškov 1.33 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vyškov landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.66 / defence 1.22 against Vyškov attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 31% | Draw 29% | Vyškov 39%, with Vyškov to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 33%, Vyškov 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vyškov's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Karviná conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.