Vyškov 0-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vyškov at 37%, yet in-form Karviná provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vyškov vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vyškov host Karviná at Sportovní areál Drnovice in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 30 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Vyškov have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Vyškov haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Karviná stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Karviná away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Karviná's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Vyškov's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vyškov 1.30 xG and Karviná 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vyškov attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Karviná attack 0.838 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 0 Vyškov games / 30 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vyškov 37% | Draw 29% | Karviná 34%. Fair-value odds: Vyškov 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Karviná 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vyškov at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Karviná (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vyškov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vyškov vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Sportovní areál Drnovice • Kick-off: Thursday 30 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vyškov 37% | Draw 29% | Karviná 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Vyškov 1.30 / Karviná 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Vyškov attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Karviná attack 0.838 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Vyškov (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Vyškov xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Karviná xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vyškov vs Karviná kick off?
Vyškov vs Karviná kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 30 May 2024 at Sportovní areál Drnovice.
What was the final score in Vyškov vs Karviná?
Vyškov 0 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Vyškov vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Sportovní areál Drnovice.
What competition is Vyškov vs Karviná part of?
Vyškov vs Karviná is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Vyškov vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Vyškov a 37% chance of winning, Karviná a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vyškov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vyškov vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vyškov and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Vyškov vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vyškov and Karviná?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vyškov and Karviná in?
Vyškov (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D. Karviná (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vyškov's attack at 0.85x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Vyškov's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vyškov Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.42
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Vyškov xG
Total xG
2.54
1.24
Karviná xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vyškov vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Vyškov and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Vyškov and 1.24 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Vyškov vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Vyškov have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — L-D across the most recent five. Vyškov haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Karviná's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Karviná are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vyškov.
The Goals Picture
Vyškov are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vyškov have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Karviná in 0%.
Defensively: Vyškov have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Karviná in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vyškov
Pre-Season
Karviná
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vyškov and Karviná in coming into this match?
Vyškov have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Karviná have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Vyškov or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vyškov have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Karviná in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vyškov and Karviná runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vyškov
0
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vyškov and Karviná?
From 2 meetings on record, Vyškov have won 0, Karviná have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vyškov and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2024, when Karviná 1-0 Vyškov.
Who has won more matches between Vyškov and Karviná?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vyškov home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vyškov play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Vyškov's recent matches and 0% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vyškov vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Vyškov's recent games and 50% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vyškov and Karviná tend to score early?
Vyškov have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Karviná in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Vyškov 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Vyškov 0-1 at Sportovní areál Drnovice, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vyškov 1.30 xG and Karviná 1.24 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vyškov fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vyškov attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Karviná attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vyškov 37% | Draw 29% | Karviná 34%, with Vyškov to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vyškov 0%, Karviná 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Karviná conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.