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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Karviná run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Teplice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Teplice 4-1 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.46 xG and Teplice 1.03 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Teplice attack 0.82 / defence 1.21, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 47% | Draw 26% | Teplice 27%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 63%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Teplice's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.32 PPG, Teplice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights