🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Karviná at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Teplice make the trip to Town Stadium Karvina to face Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Karviná have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Town Stadium Karvina, Karviná have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Teplice (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Teplice have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Karviná, 1.30 for Teplice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Karviná 1W, Teplice 2W, 4D.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 60% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 63% | Teplice 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.46 xG and Teplice 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.890 / defence 1.042 | Teplice attack 0.819 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.209. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Karviná games / 35 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Karviná 47% | Draw 26% | Teplice 27%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 3.70. Karviná hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 50% | Teplice 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights