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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Karviná 1-3 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.20 xG and Slavia Praha 1.56 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Slavia Praha attack 1.19 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 29% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 45%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 66%, Slavia Praha 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights