Karviná 1-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.

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Full Analysis

Town Stadium Karvina plays host to Karviná versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (Final). Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Karviná's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Karviná's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sigma Olomouc (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Sigma Olomouc arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Karviná's last 10 home games and Sigma Olomouc's last 10 away games) — Karviná have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sigma Olomouc in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc edge it 4 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Mar 2026, ended Karviná 2–2 Sigma Olomouc — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 62% versus Sigma Olomouc 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 67% | Sigma Olomouc 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.43 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.911 / defence 1.283 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.044 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Karviná's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sigma Olomouc's projected output up. Data: built from Karviná's last 60 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 60.

Result probabilities: Karviná 33% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 41%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.02 | Draw 3.88 | Sigma Olomouc 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.43 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Karviná's last 10 home games and Sigma Olomouc's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karviná 60% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 70% (last 10 away games).

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