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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Karviná.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Karviná 1-3 at Town Stadium Karvina, Final, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.43 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.61 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.91 / defence 1.28 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karviná 33% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 41%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 67%, Sigma Olomouc 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karviná's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karviná 1.30 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights